Economic sentiment decreases as 2025 comes to a close

The latest biweekly reading of the Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) decreased by 0.6 points, from 32.0 to 31.4, marking a dip in overall economic confidence ahead of the new year. 

Three of the ESI’s five indicators decreased during this period. Confidence in the overall U.S. economy decreased the most, falling 2.2 points to 31.7.

—Confidence in finding a new job decreased 1.3 points to 26.2.
—Confidence in making a major purchase decreased 1.0 point to 22.3.
—Confidence in buying a new home remained at 24.3.
—Confidence in personal finances increased 1.5 points to 52.4.

At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected “hawkish cut,” lowering the federal funds target range rate by a quarter percentage point to a 3.5–3.75 percent range, despite divisions emerging over the path ahead. The decision was approved by the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) in a rare 9–3 vote. Additionally, the committee’s updated dot plot, a chart showing where each FOMC participant expects interest rates to be in the future, signaled only one additional cut in 2026 and another in 2027. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that policymakers are, “well positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves”. Beyond the rate move, the Fed also announced it will resume Treasury purchases, beginning with $40 billion in T-bills this week, as officials navigate persistent inflation, mixed labor-market signals, and political scrutiny ahead of Powell’s term ending next year.

The FOMC stated that recent data shows the economy expanding at a moderate but slowing pace, with job gains weakening and unemployment edging higher through the fall. Inflation has continued to increase throughout the year and remains “somewhat elevated.” Uncertainty about the economic outlook is also elevated. Lastly, Fed officials noted that the risks to the job market are growing, meaning they’re now more worried about rising unemployment, reflecting softer hiring and early signs of labor-market cooling as businesses grow more cautious. 

The release of the delayed November jobs report showed a fragile labor market, with payrolls rising just 64,000 in November after a steep 105,000 decline in October. Unemployment climbed to 4.6 percent, its highest level in four years. November’s gains were narrowly concentrated — health care accounted for more than 70 percent of net job growth — while sectors such as transportation continued to shed workers. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.1 percent, reinforcing that wage pressures are not fueling inflation.

Additionally, the U.S. Census Bureau’s advance estimates for October showed retail and food services sales were essentially flat at $732.6 billion, though still 3.5 percent higher than a year ago, with gains driven largely by nonstore retailers and steady growth in food services.

The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 33.5 on December 3. It then decreased, falling to a low of 28.8 on December 9. The three-day moving average then steadily increased to a high of 33.8 on December 14 before decreasing to 32.5 on December 16 to close out the session.

Due to the New Year’s holiday, the next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, January 14, 2026.

Economic sentiment rises ahead of the December Fed meeting 

The latest biweekly reading of the Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) rose by 1.4 points, from 30.6 to 32.0, ahead of the December meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC).

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Four of the ESI’s five indicators increased during this period. Confidence in finding a new job increased the most, climbing 3.0 points to 27.5.

—Confidence in personal finances increased 1.8 points to 50.9.

—Confidence in making a major purchase increased 1.7 points to 23.3.

—Confidence in the overall U.S. economy increased 0.8 points to 33.9.

—Confidence in buying a new home decreased 0.6 points to 24.3.

Following the end of the government shutdown, federal statistical agencies have begun issuing key economic data from the past few months after several months’ delay due to the lapse in government funding.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued the delayed September Jobs Report on November 20, which showed that the economy added 119,000 jobs—well above the 50,000 predicted by economists—and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent. Later, on November 25, BLS released the September Producer Price Index (PPI), finding that prices for final demand goods, excluding food, energy, and trade services, increased by 0.1 percent in September and 2.9 percent annually. Also on November 25, the U.S. Census Bureau released the estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales in September. Overall, retail and good sales were $733.3 billion, up 0.2 percent from August, and up 4.3 percent from September 2024.

Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) showed that existing home sales in October rose 1.2 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.1 million, its highest level since February. Year-over-year sales increased 1.7 percent. “Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.

On December 9 and 10, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold the final FOMC meeting of 2025 to determine whether to reduce interest rates for the third time this year. A Wall Street Journal analysis found that FOMC voters are divided on the path forward for monetary policy. This is due, in part, to the dearth of timely economic data caused by the government shutdown. Following the last FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell likened the lack of economic data to “driving in the fog” and stated that a December cut is “not a foregone conclusion.”

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 30.2 on November 19. It then decreased, falling to a low of 29.0 on November 21. The three-day moving average then trended upward, rising to a high of 34.2 on November 29 before dipping to 32.5 on December 2 to close out the session.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, December 17, 2025.

Economic sentiment declines again to its lowest point since July 2022

The latest biweekly reading of the Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) decreased by 0.7 points to 30.6 as the longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended on November 12. The ESI declined past the previous yearly low of 30.9 (from two periods ago) to reach the lowest level recorded since July 2022.

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Four of the ESI’s five indicators decreased during this period. Confidence in finding a new job decreased the most, falling 2.2 points to 24.5.

—Confidence in making a major purchase decreased 1.8 points to 21.6.
—Confidence in buying a new home decreased 0.3 points to 24.9.
—Confidence in personal finances decreased 0.1 points to 49.1.
—Confidence in the overall U.S. economy increased 1.1 points to 33.1.

Despite ending, the consequences of the shutdown are expected to continue to affect the overall U.S. economy, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Julie Kozack, an IMF spokesperson, stated that while the shutdown will negatively affect the economy, it is expected that the impact will be reversed by the first quarter of 2026. Kozack highlighted that “The U.S. economy has proven to be resilient in the past few years” but that “We do now see strains starting to mount.” 

Additionally, the shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, complicating economists’ ability to assess the U.S. economy. While the September Jobs Report is now scheduled for release this week, it remains uncertain whether the October Jobs Report will be released. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated the October Jobs Report is likely never to be released, but Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, later clarified the report will be released, though without the unemployment rate.

In recent weeks, President Donald Trump has rolled back tariffs on certain agricultural and textile products. In an executive order, the president exempted food products, such as coffee, tea, certain fruits, beef, and some fertilizers from reciprocal tariffs. Additionally, the U.S. is working to finalize trade agreements with Ecuador, Argentina, Guatemala, and El Salvador. These agreements, which are anticipated to be finalized in the next couple of weeks, will reduce tariffs on a variety of goods, including food, textiles, and apparel.

Mortgage rates increased slightly over the last two-week period, rising twice after five consecutive weeks of decline. Data from Freddie Mac shows that the average 30-year mortgage rate increased to 6.24 percent during the week ending November 13. Despite this increase, rates remain around their yearly low, offering some relief to homebuyers. Indeed, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows that purchase applications rose 6 percent week-over-week, its strongest pace since September.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at a high of 32.9 on November 5. It then trended downward, falling to a low of 28.8 on November 10. The three-day moving average then rose back up to 32.0 on November 14 before falling to 30.0 on November 16. Finally, it rose to 31.2 on November 18 to close out the session.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, December 3, 2025.

Economic sentiment slightly increases as government shutdown continues

The latest biweekly reading of the Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increased by 0.4 points to 31.3, remaining near an all-time-low as the government shutdown continues.

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Two of the ESI’s five indicators increased during this period. Confidence in the overall U.S. economy increased the most, rising 2.4 points to 32.0.

—Confidence in making a major purchase increased 0.9 points to 23.4.

—Confidence in buying a new home remained at 25.2.

—Confidence in finding a new job decreased 0.2 points to 26.7.

—Confidence in personal finances decreased 1.1 points to 49.2.

The federal government shutdown, now ongoing since October 1, poses potential risks to overall economic activity in the United States. A recent report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) found that after four weeks, the government shutdown has likely cost the U.S. economy $7 billion, a figure that could grow to $14 billion in permanently lost gross domestic product (GDP) if the shutdown hits eight weeks. The shutdown also continues to delay the release of key economic data, including the initial estimate for GDP for the third quarter of this year.

On October 29, the Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to between 3.75 and 4 percent. Ten of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted for the quarter-point cut, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissenting in favor of a half-point cut and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid dissenting in favor of no cut at all. Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told CNBC that two diverging dissents were “unusual” because one FOMC participant wanted a deeper cut and the other wanted to keep the rate steady.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized internal divisions over the path of monetary policy, signaling that a rate cut in December is not a “foregone conclusion” due to “strongly differing views about how to proceed.” He also noted how diminished data availability due to the ongoing government shutdown could lead the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance on further rate reductions.

Also on October 29, President Donald Trump announced a deal with China to temporarily lower certain tariffs on Chinese goods in return for China suspending export controls on rare earth minerals. Additionally, China committed to halting the flow of fentanyl precursors into the United States, ending harmful trade practices against U.S. semiconductor and other major firms. It also agreed to purchasing more U.S. soybeans and other agricultural exports.

Mortgage rates have dropped for the fourth straight week, with Freddie Mac reporting that the average 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.17 percent, its lowest level in over a year. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist, stated in a press release that “the last few months have brought lower rates and homebuyers are increasingly entering the market.”

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at 31.9 on October 22. It then fell to 29.9 on October 25, before steadily rising to 32.5 on October 28. After stabilizing for a couple days, the moving average fell to a low of 29.3 on November 1 before ending the session at a two-week high of 32.9 on November 4.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, November 18, 2025.

Economic sentiment declines to its lowest point since July 2022

The latest biweekly reading of the Penta-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) decreased by 1.0 point to 30.9, dropping below its previous low point in the weeks following the April 2025 tariff announcement. The index has now hit its lowest point since July 2022 amid continued economic uncertainty and the federal government shutdown.

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Three of the ESI’s five indicators decreased during this period. Confidence in making a major purchase decreased the most, falling 2.9 points to 22.5.

—Confidence in the overall U.S. economy decreased 2.3 points to 29.6.
—Confidence in finding a new job decreased 0.5 points to 26.9.
—Confidence in personal finances increased 0.2 points to 50.3.
—Confidence in buying a new home increased 0.6 points to 25.2.

The federal government shutdown, which began on October 1 and remains ongoing, may have lasting effects on the U.S. economy. An official from the Department of Treasury stated that the lost output generated because of the shutdown may cost the economy up to $15 billion per week, and analysis from Oxford Economics states that a shutdown will reduce GDP growth by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points per week. The shutdown is also continuing to delay the release of key economic data, including the September Consumer Price Index report (CPI) which has now been rescheduled to October 24. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, forecasting a slowdown in global growth to 3.2 percent in 2025, down from 3.3 percent in 2024. These 2025 projections represent an improvement from the IMF’s July predictions but are, in total, 0.2 percentage point below forecasts from late 2024. Meanwhile, the Fund projects U.S. economic growth will slow to 2.0 percent in 2025. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas noted that these data are “not as bad as we feared, but worse than we anticipated a year ago, and worse than we need.”

The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book report, which provides an anecdotal overview of the economic situation in the Fed’s 12 districts, found that economic activity “changed little” since the last report in early September. The Fed noted labor markets remained steady while price pressures intensified across many of the Fed’s 12 districts as tariffs contributed to rising costs. While some firms froze prices to retain customers, others fully passed on import costs, particularly in manufacturing and retail sectors. Recent analysis from Goldman Sachs found that American consumers will be most impacted by these tariffs, shouldering 55 percent of the new trade costs this year. Meanwhile, U.S. businesses will take on 22 percent of the costs, foreign exporters will absorb 18 percent, and five percent of the costs will be evaded.

Trade tensions between the U.S. and China have continued to escalate, as President Donald Trump stated on Truth Social he will impose an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1. This follows Beijing’s announcement of new export restrictions on products made with rare earth minerals, limiting the export products used for military applications and requiring foreign suppliers to obtain government approval to ship products essential in the semiconductor, AI, and EV industries. In response to China’s restrictions, the U.S. and Australia signed a minerals agreement committing more than $3 billion in combined government investments toward critical mineral projects over the next six months.

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The ESI’s three-day moving average began this two-week stretch at a high of 33.5 on October 8. It then fell to a low of 29.1 on October 11 before trending upward, climbing to 33.1 on October 17. The three-day moving average then oscillated over the following days, ending the session at 31.5 on October 21.

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The next release of the ESI will be on Wednesday, November 4, 2025.