Consumer Confidence Remains Steady; Holding Slightly Above Last Year’s Level

Consumer confidence remained steady over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index moved down a mere 0.2 points, falling from a reading of 52.9 on July 24 to 52.7 on August 7th.

Escalating trade tensions, inflationary economic pressures, and rising geopolitical tensions have led to growing uncertainty about the broader U.S. economy. Yet despite the heightened economic insecurity, the ESI is 0.6 points above last year’s level, indicating relatively stable consumer confidence over the past year.

The slight decline in the ESI was driven by a 1.7 decrease in economic sentiment towards the labor market. After spiking during Amazon Prime Day, confidence in making a major purchase also fell to 53.2. Economic sentiment towards the broader economy and housing market increased slightly, rising by 0.6 and 0.7 points respectively. Consumer confidence in personal finances remained flat, rising only 0.2 points.

Four out of five of the ESI’s indicators have increased since August 2017. Confidence in the U.S. housing market is the only indicator to have declined, falling 2.1 points, while all other indicators have experienced increases ranging from 0.6 to 3.2 points.

After falling slightly at the beginning of the two-week period, the three-day moving average rose by 1.5 points. The slight increase in the ESI towards the end of the two-week reading comes as the U.S. labor market continues to report strong growth, with analysts reporting that companies are struggling to find enough workers to meet the needs of an expanding U.S. economy.

The next release of the ESI will be August 21, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C., San Francisco, and New York City. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow us on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.