Consumer Confidence Fell Heading Into Black Friday, But Was Up Overall In November

Today, Hamilton Place Strategies and CivicScience reported that the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) 3-day rolling average fell over the past two weeks from 46.7 to 43.9. The index, which measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases, fell during the week leading up to Thanksgiving, but jumped back up slightly on Black Friday and settled around 44.0 over the past five days.

While the two-week period showed decline, over the course of the month of November the two-week average rose from 40.7 to 43.0. In fact, the two-week average reading has increased back to levels not seen since August. This rise was welcome news heading into the holiday shopping season as it showed that the effects of the government shutdown, which drove consumer confidence to 2013 lows in October, were only temporary.

The recent rise most likely boosted Black Friday sales as consumer confidence was a strong predictor of Black Friday shopping behavior. The economic confidence of consumers indicating they were likely to go shopping on Black Friday was a full four points higher than those indicating they would stay at home.

The next release of the ESI will be Tuesday December 17th.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures. 

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.

About CivicScience

CivicScience is a next-generation polling and data mining company. The company partners with hundreds of premier websites to survey millions of people every week. Proprietary technology then rapidly analyzes consumer opinion, discovers trends in real-time, and accurately predicts market outcomes. CivicScience is used by leading enterprises in an array of industries including marketing research, advertising, digital media, financial services, and political polling.