Consumer Confidence Plunges To Lowest Level In Over A Year

Consumer confidence dropped over two points this week to 51.0 points according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). This was the largest two-week period drop in one year and represents the lowest level for the ESI in over a year.

All five of the ESI’s indicators fell during the reading period. The largest decline was driven by decreased confidence in the broader economy, which fell by 3.5 points. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase also fell significantly, dropping 2.9 points to a reading of 50.9. Confidence in personal finances for consumers also fell 2.4 points to hit a reading of 65.2 during the reading period. Economic sentiment towards the housing and labor market both fell by 1.0 and 0.9 points respectively.

The reversal in overall consumer confidence comes amid greater economic uncertainty and decreasing global growth. The drop in consumer confidence occurs as volatile geopolitical tensions with China persist, synchronized global economic growth remains uncertain, and U.S. home data continues to weaken. Additionally, investors continue to express uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s plans to continue raising interest rates.

The three-day rolling average fell during the observation period, ending at a reading of 49.1, 5.1 points off its high of 54.2 points on November 29.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, January 8, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.