Consumers Turn More Optimistic As Confidence Soars Above 50
Consumers turned more optimistic over the past two weeks with confidence soaring above 50, nearly a three point jump. This is the highest the HPS-Civic Science Index has reported over the past two years, passing the previous high from May 2013 of 49.3. The recent gains coincide with the drop in oil prices, which were expected to lead to a bump in consumer confidence according to data highlighted in the previous release. The index has been steadily rising since March of this year, but particularly since September when the index broke away from its steady trend at 46 to approach 50.
The three day moving average over the last two weeks shows a steady rise in consumer confidence where it started two weeks ago at 48.4. The three day moving average peaked midway through the period at 52.1, then it decreased just slightly by the end of the two weeks.
All five components of the ESI increased over the past two weeks, with the most notable gains in confidence in the U.S. economy (up 4.8 points). Confidence in the job market and making major purchases were also up considerably, rising 3.5 points each, while confidence in buying a home increased by 2.4 points to 56.6. Consumer confidence in personal finances increased the least by only 0.3 points, continuing a nearly two month steady trend in this sentiment. All of these reflect a general increase in confidence in the economy, paralleling recent positive economic reports.
The next release of the ESI will be December 30.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
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CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.