Consumer Confidence Stays Constant Despite Decline In Sentiment Toward Personal Finances

Consumer confidence remained unchanged at 53.3 points over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI).

High levels of confidence in the U.S. labor market as well as the broader economy were offset by a 2.7 point decrease in consumer sentiment towards personal finances, resulting in no change in the index’s overall movement.

Three of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the reading period. Consumer confidence in the U.S. labor market experienced the largest increase, rising 1.7 points to reach 49.0 points. In addition to the increase in consumer confidence in the labor market, consumer confidence in both the broader economy and the housing market rose by 1.2 points to 51.3 points and 48.9 points, respectively. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment towards making a major purchase dropped 1.2 points, from 54.1 points to 52.9 points. Additionally, the aforementioned 2.7 point decrease in consumer sentiment towards personal finances constitutes the largest change for the indicator since September 19, 2017.

The ESI’s three-day rolling average ended the reading period on a low note of 52.2 points, 2.9 points off its peak of 55.1 points. After starting the reading period at 52.5 points on Wednesday, September 5, the moving average reached its trough of 51.3 on Sunday, September 9. The rolling average quickly moved up to reach 55.1 points on Wednesday, September 12 as the U.S. and Chinese governments discussed details for a new round of trade talks. The rolling average then reversed course, dropping down to finish the reading period at 52.2 points as the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, further escalating trade tensions.

The next release of the ESI will be October 2, 2018.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.