Consumer Confidence – World Cup Edition
Consumer confidence fell 0.2 points to 46.4 over the past two weeks, according to the latest data from the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The small drop in consumer confidence completes a 1.1 point drop in the month of June and a modest 0.3 point drop over the calendar year. However, consumer confidence still remains above the 2014 average in part due to confidence in consumer financing, which rose to a calendar year high of 58.4.
The two-week average masks a larger downturn in confidence over the past week. After rising to a two-week high of 48.6 on June 25th, the rolling three-day average fell below 45 for four straight days, ending at 44.3. This level is 3.2 points lower than at the start of the two-week period.
Three of the five ESI components fell over the past two weeks, including confidence in purchasing a new home, making a major purchase, and the U.S. economy. However, the ESI was boosted by a 4.9 point rise in consumer finance confidence, which hit its highest level since the beginning of the ESI in January of 2013.
None of the components have changed more than four points from where they stood at this time in 2013. In fact, the largest yearly change in any of the components is confidence in the U.S. economy, which has fallen 3.6 points. Driven by recent gains, confidence in the labor market has increased the most of any component over the past year with a 2.3 point jump. This rise has coincided with a string of strong jobs reports.
Now we ask a truly important question: Is confidence in the economy related to confidence in the United States’ chances in the ongoing FIFA World Cup? Nope. In fact, the more economically confident a respondent is, the more likely they were to expect the U.S. to be knocked out in the group stage when surveyed prior to the tournament. While those respondents may have been wrong about the fortunes of the team, hopefully they’re right about the fortunes of the economy.
Disappointingly, there were not enough people who predicted the U.S. to win or make it to the finals for us to calculate a value with confidence.
However, those following the World Cup are more economically confident than those who are not – good news for bars, restaurants, and apparel makers. This trend is likely driven by young people, who are the most economically confident age group, per our first quarter ESI report.
The next release of the ESI will be Tuesday, July 15th.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.