Consumers Unperturbed By Government Shutdown, ESI Reaches Another Record High
Consumer confidence reached a record high for the second consecutive reading despite the brief federal government shutdown, rising 0.1 points to 54.4, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). A slight uptick in the reading pushed the ESI to its highest level since the index’s creation more than five years ago.
Rising confidence in the broader U.S. economy fueled the overall index’s ascent, as the indicator improved by 2.4 points to 53.8. With this increase, confidence in the broader U.S. economy surpasses confidence in making a major purchase for the first time since April 4, 2017.
Improving economic sentiment toward the broader U.S. economy helped offset declines in sentiment toward three of the other four ESI indicators. Economic sentiment toward personal finances was the other ESI indicator to improve, albeit only slightly, as the indicator increased by 0.1 points to 68.1.
Economic sentiment toward the housing market experienced the most significant decline, dropping 1.6 points to 46.8, the indicator’s lowest level since October 3, 2017. Confidence in making a major purchase saw a 0.5-point decline, falling to 53.7, while confidence in the labor market slipped by 0.1 points to 49.5.
While the overall ESI improved during the two-week reading, the ESI’s three-day moving average ended the reading 3.9 points lower than where it began. The moving average started the reading at its peak of 57.0 on Wednesday, January 10, before falling to its trough of 51.9 on Monday, January 22. After the government shutdown ended on Monday, the ESI moving average increased by 1.2 points to end the reading at 53.1 on Tuesday, January 23.
The next release of the ESI will be February 6, 2018.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.