Economic Sentiment Recovers, Led By Increased Consumer Confidence In Making A Major Purchase
Consumer confidence recovered for the first time in six weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index increased by a total of 0.9 points, from a reading of 51.9 points on April 17th to 52.8 points on May 1st, while the three-day moving average ended at near highs of 53.9.
Four of the ESI’s five indicators rose during the two-week reading period. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest increase, rising by 1.8 points, from 51.5 to 53.3. While economic sentiment towards the housing market rose 0.6 points to 49.6, its highest level since January 9th. Confidence in personal finances rose by 1.6 points, from 64.6 to 66.2. Consumer sentiment towards the labor market increased slightly from 46.8 to 47.2, a 0.4 point increase, while confidence in the broader economy fell by 0.2 points to reach a reading of 47.4.
The ESI’s three-day rolling average ended the two-week period on a high note with a reading of 53.9. After a slight dip during the beginning of the reading period, the three-day rolling average rose through April 22nd reaching a level of 53.7, nearly one point above the two-week average. After falling to a reading of 51.1 on April 27th the ESI steadily rose, reaching a high point of 55.2 on April 30th before falling on May 1st to hit its final reading of 53.9.
The drop in the ESI’s three-day moving average was also reflected in a declining stock market amid escalating trade tensions with U.S. allies. On April 30th, the Trump Administration announced that they would postpone tariffs on steel and aluminum to June 1st for European and other trading partners.
The next release of the ESI will be May 15, 2018.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.