Economic Sentiment Increases Slightly, Despite Declining Confidence In Personal Finances

Consumer confidence rose slightly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), increasing by 0.2 points. The ESI has mostly risen over the past two months, rising for three of the past four readings increasing 1.3 points to reach 53.8 – its highest level of 2019.

Three out of the ESI’s five indicators increased during the reading. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest increase, rising 1.1 points to reach 56.1. This increase was trailed by a 0.5-point increase in economic sentiment toward the broader economy which rose to 50.2, as it continued its 2019 climb. Consumer confidence in the broader housing market jumped slightly to 51.3 while confidence in the labor market remained unchanged. Meanwhile, confidence in personal finances fell to a reading 63.9, a decline of 0.7 points.

The slow and steady increase to the ESI come amid mixed economic signals for consumers. The unemployment rate hit its lowest level in a half-century in the most recent report released on May 3. While the labor market has been an engine of growth, fears about a re-escalation in trade tensions with China have led to increased stock market volatility and fueled fears of rising prices for consumers.

The three-day rolling average ended the reading period near its peak. The moving average began at 55.4 on May 1 before dropping to a low of 53.1 on May 4 and 5. The rolling average then increased over the past week, reaching a peak of 54.8 points on the penultimate day of the reading period, before closing slightly lower at 54.5.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, May 28, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.ts powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.