Consumer Confidence Continues Slide, Matches Lowest Level For 2016
Consumer confidence declined again over the past two weeks, continuing a month-long negative trend, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index fell 0.3 points since March 22, dropping from 47.1 to 46.8. This ties the ESI’s lowest level thus far for 2016, matching the January 26 reading. Excluding the January 26 reading, this is the lowest the index has been since October 21, 2014.
The five ESI indicators experienced a mixed bag of results during this reading, with confidence increasing in the broader U.S. economy and in making a major purchase, while confidence declined in the labor market, personal finances, and the housing market. Consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy rebounded, increasing by 0.9 points to 38.9 and shedding its label as the indicator with the least amount of consumer confidence, a distinction it held during the last reading for the first time in more than a year. Confidence in making a major purchase also rose during the reading, jumping 0.7 points to 48.2. Consumer confidence in the labor market, personal finances, and the housing market fell by 1.5, 1.1, and 0.9 points, respectively. These results restored the status quo in place before the previous reading in terms of order, as confidence in the labor market once again fell to the bottom spot, while personal finances maintained its place as the indicator that consumers are most confident in.
The three-day rolling average bounced around during the two weeks before trending downward toward the end of the reading. The moving average hit its low point of 45.6 on April 5, the last day of the reading.
The next release of the ESI will be April 19.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.