Among Five Indicators, Consumers Now Least Confident In Broader U.S. Economy
After jumping to its highest point thus far in 2016, consumer confidence fell over the course of the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The ESI dropped by more than full point, from 48.3 to 47.1, giving back almost all of the gains accumulated during the March 8 reading. The decline puts the current reading below the 2016 ESI average of 47.4, and it marks the fourth time in six readings in 2016 that the index has fallen.
Consumer confidence declined for all five of the ESI’s indicators. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy experienced the most significant decline, falling sharply from 41.3 to 38.0. The drop makes confidence in the broader economy the lowest of the five indicators, pushing it below confidence in the labor market for the first time in over a year. Confidence in making a major purchase fell a full point to 47.5, while confidence in the labor market dropped from 39.7 to 38.8. Consumer confidence in the housing market and in personal finances both lagged during the reading, as well, dropping to 52.2 and 59.2, respectively. Confidence in personal finances retained its top spot among the five indicators, as it has for over a year.
The three-day rolling average reached its peak of 49 on March 13, but has trended downward since, particularly since March 18. Each day since March 18, the moving average has declined, ultimately dropping to its lowest point of 45.6 on March 22, the last day of the reading.
The next release of the ESI will be April 4.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.