Consumer Confidence Dips Slightly, But Remains At A 4-Month High
Consumer confidence dipped down nearly a full point over the past two weeks from 47.5 to 46.6, according to the latest two-week moving average from the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). After the slight bump two weeks ago, it appears consumer confidence is returning back to its seven-month trend of around 46. Noteworthy, despite declines and volatility in the stock market, the three-day rolling average remained relatively stable during the two-week period.
Starting at 47.5 on October 8, the three-day rolling average fell to 46.1 in the first couple of days in the two-week period. Yet, while the S&P 500 declined from October 10 to October 15, the ESI remained relatively constant above 46. The ESI also remained at those levels as the S&P 500 recovered a bit over the next several days.
Most notably, confidence in making a major purchase fell to 44.6, the lowest level since February. Confidence in personal finances also dipped, down more than two points from 57.7 to 55.4. At the same time, confidence in the U.S. economy was up 0.7 points to 40.3. Confidence in the housing market increased by more than half a point to 54.2.
The next release of the ESI will be November 4.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.