Consumer Confidence Surges Upward
Consumer confidence jumped nearly two points from two weeks ago, increasing from 46.5 to a 2014 high of 48.3 according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index. With growth across all five components of the index, the ESI reached its highest point since June 2013, breaking free from its seven-month long stay at around 46. The ESI’s measured increases are also reflected in other consumer sentiment reports, such as Thomson Reuters-University of Michigan and the Conference Board, suggesting a potential shift in consumer confidence in October.
The three-day moving average experienced two large increases over the past two weeks: first rising to 48.8 on October 24 and then reaching 49.5 on October 30. Both of these spikes were followed by regressions back to around 47.
The five components of the ESI showed consumer confidence increases across the board. Confidence in making major purchases experienced the most substantial increase, jumping nearly 2.4 points to 47.0. Also of note, confidence in the labor market and the national economy increased to 2014 highs.
With other consumer sentiment reports reflecting the same increases in confidence, the ESI surges of the past two weeks may bode well for retailers heading into the holiday season.
The next release of the ESI will be November 18.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
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CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.