Consumer Confidence Dips Slightly
Following a sharp climb throughout December and the beginning of January, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dipped slightly from 53.3 to 52.8 over the last two weeks. The dip occurred on the heels of a strong growth period when the ESI jumped from 47.6 to 53.3. This time last year saw declines suggesting potential seasonal effects, but overall the index remains elevated. Of note, as we head into the Federal Reserve’s policy meetings today and tomorrow, confidence in finding a new job declined for the second reading in a row.
Looking across the five components of the index, all dipped with the exception of confidence in purchasing a new home, which rose 1.6 points. Confidence in the housing market, a longtime stagnant component of the index, has increased steadily since the beginning of December. It’s now at 58.7, which is the highest it’s been in the past year.
As stated above, confidence in finding a new job fell for the second reading in a row from 43.6 to 42.5. In total, confidence in finding a new job has fallen 2.1 points over the past month. The trend is worrying, but, at this level, confidence in finding a new job is still 2 points above its high points in 2014.
The index’s three day moving average saw some volatility in the middle of the two-week period. The reading ended on an upward note heading into the coming two weeks.
The next release of the ESI will be February 10.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.