Consumer Confidence Takes Another Post-Holiday Dip
For the second straight two-week period, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dipped slightly from 52.8 to 51.2, a drop of 1.6 points. This January slide parallels a similar drop last year when the ESI fell from 44.5 to 42.6, suggesting a possible seasonal fluctuation. Additionally, the boost from falling oil prices may have leveled off. Yet overall, this slide comes after one of the strongest periods on record. At 51.2, the ESI is higher than the yearly average from 2014 and is nearly nine points above its level this time last year.
Consumer confidence fell across all five components of the index. The sharpest decrease was in confidence in the national economy, which fell four points and is now back to its levels from last November.
Similarly, confidence in the labor market, in making a major purchase, and in the housing market are all still relatively high compared to their 2014 levels even with this dip. The only component to rise was confidence in personal finances, which rose slightly and remains the strongest indicator overall.
The three day moving average shows that the drop occurred throughout the two week period.
The next release of the ESI will be February 24.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.