Consumer Confidence Falls Again But Remains Above 2014 Trend
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) dropped for the third straight two-week period, falling 1.3 points from 51.2 to 49.9. This recent dip erases much of the gains experienced in December and is echoed by a similar drop in the Michigan survey. At the same time, this dip comes off of the heels of a strong rally in the Fall of 2014, which brought the index to highs above the 50-point threshold. At 49.9, the ESI is still more than seven points higher than its level from a year ago and well over last year’s average. Further, while similar to the dip experienced in January of last year, the most recent drop is 0.6 points less than that of a year ago.
Confidence fell across all five indicators. The largest drop, coming in at 2.5 points, came from respondents’ confidence in making a major purchase. Though down, at 49.5 points, it still ranks above any time before December of 2014. Additionally, confidence in the US economy and in the prospects of getting a new job both fell for the third consecutive period.
Lastly, the three-day moving average showed volatility reaching a high of 51.5 and a low of 48.2 before coming to rest at 49.3, just below where it started the two-week period.
The next release of the ESI will be March 9.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.