Consumer Confidence Falls, Led By Declining Confidence In Making A Major Purchase

Consumer confidence fell significantly the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI), decreasing by 0.9 points. The ESI has risen over the past two months, but decreased over the past two weeks to 52.9, its largest decline since January.

Three out of the ESI’s five indicators decreased during the reading. Consumer confidence in making a major purchase experienced the largest decline, falling 2.3 points to reach 53.8. This decrease was trailed by a 2.2 point decrease in economic sentiment toward the broader economy which fell to 48.0, ending its 2019 climb. Consumer confidence in the broader housing market also fell to a two month low of 49.5 points. Meanwhile, confidence in personal finances rose to 65.0, a 1.1 point increase. Labor market confidence also rose 0.6 points to 48.1, its highest reading since November.

The significant decrease to the ESI comes amid mixed economic signals for consumers. The unemployment rate remains at a record low, but increased tariffs on China have sparked fears of slowing the US economy and increasing prices for consumers.

The three-day rolling average was volatile during the reading period, fluctuating from a low of 50.3 points on Monday, May 20 to its peak of 54.2 points on Thursday, May 23. The rolling average closed below peak at 53.6.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, June 11, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.ts powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.