Consumer Confidence In The Broader U.S. Economy Rises Sharply
Despite confidence in the broader U.S. economy rising more than 2.0 points, overall consumer confidence declined over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The ESI’s decline marks the third time in four readings during 2016 when the index has dropped. After improving by 0.5 points during the February 9 reading, the ESI fell 0.3 points over the past two weeks, from 47.3 to 47.0. Compared to the February 24, 2015, reading from one year ago, the ESI is down almost three points, from 49.9 to the current level of 47.0.
Consumer confidence lagged for four of the ESI’s five indicators, with losses registered in personal finances, the labor market, the housing market, and making a major purchase. Confidence in personal finances, although retaining the top spot for the five indicators, experienced the most precipitous drop, falling 1.9 points to 57.3. Consumer sentiment regarding the labor market followed suit, dipping from 37.3 to 36.4. Confidence in the housing market fell 0.6 points to 52.0, while confidence in making a major purchase dropped 0.3 points to 47.9. Consumer confidence in the broader U.S. economy was the only indicator to rise over the two week period, climbing 2.2 points to 41.6.
Despite the overall decline in the ESI, the three-day rolling average trended in the right direction, experiencing its trough of 46.1 on the second day of the reading — February 11 — and its peak of 47.9 during the final day.
The next release of the ESI will be March 8.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.