Consumer Confidence Rebounds In Advance Of December’s Fed Meeting
After dropping precipitously at the end of November, consumer confidence recovered the majority of its losses, as the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) rose from 47.1 to 47.9 over the past two weeks. The 0.8-point increase pushes the ESI to just below its six-month moving average of 47.95. The movement in consumer confidence over the past two weeks parallels the uptick it experienced this time last year, when consumer confidence began its steady rise that lasted to the January 13 reading of this year, when it topped out at 53.3.
Confidence in the broader U.S. economy began to rebound slightly after taking a 3.7-point dive in the last reading, rising from 38.5 to 39.4 over the past two weeks. Additionally, confidence in the labor market and in making a major purchase each increased by 1.7 points this reading. Labor market confidence rose to 39.1, while confidence in making a major purchase increased to 50.0. Confidence in the housing market also grew to 53.2, up 0.8 points from the previous reading of 52.4. Consumer confidence in personal finances experienced the only decline over the past two weeks, as it fell 1.4 points, from 59.2 to 57.8.
The three-day moving average dropped almost a full point during the middle of the reading, from 48.1 to 47.2 over a four-day period, before rebounding considerably and hovering around the 48.0 range for the rest of the reading. Despite its volatility, the rolling average remained within the 47.2 to 48.7 range throughout the two-week period.
The next release of the ESI will be December 29. This will be the final release in 2015.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.