Confidence In Broader U.S. Economy Down Almost Four Points In Two Weeks
After a month-long increase between October 20 and November 17, consumer confidence declined over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The index dropped from 48.2 to 47.1, and experienced its largest decrease over a two week period since April. The drop in consumer sentiment pushes the ESI to its second lowest point in the past twelve months and below its average of 48.0 points since the June 2 reading. This decline imitates the decrease that occurred last year during the Thanksgiving holiday. Of note, last year’s drop was followed by a sharp increase in consumer confidence throughout the holiday season and into the new year as gas prices fell.
Sentiment regarding the broader U.S. economy declined the most, as confidence in the economy dropped 3.7 points, from 42.2 to 38.5. Consumer confidence in the labor and housing markets fell by 2.3 points and 1.5 points, respectively; labor market confidence dropped to 37.4, while housing market confidence registered at 52.4. Confidence in personal finances and making a major purchase were the two comparatively bright spots this reading, with each rebounding after a decline in the last reading. Consumer confidence in personal finances rose 2.3 points to 59.2, while confidence in making a major purchase increased from 48.2 to 48.3.
The three-day moving average predominantly held steady in the 46 to 48 range, achieving its peak of 48.4 at the beginning of the reading. The rolling averaged bottomed out at 46.1 on November 25 before ultimately ending at 46.9.
The next release of the ESI will be December 15.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.
About CivicScience
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.