Consumer Confidence Recovers, Led By Renewed Ability To Make A Major Purchase

Following an almost equal drop during the last reading in January, the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) increased 1.9 points to a reading of 50.0, reflecting growth across all components of the ESI during the past two weeks.

The ESI’s surge at the start of February coincides with the announcement of a strong January jobs report. Despite the monthlong government shutdown and concern over a slowing economy, the U.S. economy added 304,000 jobs, higher than expected by initial forecasts. The employment figures were announced soon after the Federal Reserve’s decision to delay raising interest rates for the time being.

Confidence expanded across all five components of the ESI. Economic sentiment towards making a major purchase increased by 2.6 points to 47.1, while confidence in the broader U.S. economy and personal finances jumped by 2.5 points to 44.9 and 66.3 points respectively. Consumer confidence in the labor market also rose, moving up from 43.8 points to 45.3 points. Finally, consumer sentiment toward the housing market increased slightly by 0.5 points to reach 46.6 points.

The three-day moving average grew steadily into the beginning of February. During the past two weeks, the rolling average increased from a low of 47.2 points on January 23 to a high of 52.8 points on February 4, only dropping off slightly to end the reading period at 52.0 points.

The next release of the ESI will be on Tuesday, February 19, 2019.

About the Index

The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.

For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.

About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)

Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS) is an analytical public affairs consulting firm with offices in Washington, D.C. and San Francisco. We integrate substantive analysis with communications and believe a deep understanding of business and economics leads to more effective public engagement and better outcomes for our clients.

For more information, visit Hamilton Place Strategies by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @HPSInsight.

About CivicScience

CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.