Consumer Confidence Sinks To Lowest Point Since September 2014
Consumer confidence in economic conditions worsened over the past two weeks, as the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) fell 0.9 points to 46.5, its lowest level since September 23, 2014. Falling confidence in four of the index’s five indicators drove the decline, and the reading moves the ESI’s 2016 average down from 47.3 to 47.2.
Consumer confidence in making a major purchase was the lone bright spot of the reading, as it rose 0.6 points to 48.4 and maintained its position as the third most confidence-inspiring indicator among consumers. Confidence in personal finances, on the other hand, decreased the most, falling from 60.2 to 58.0. Sentiment regarding the housing market was close behind, sliding 1.7 points to 52.4. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy and the labor market each declined by less than a point, dropping to 37.3 and 36.4, respectively. Despite the movement, for the fourth straight reading consumers identified as most confident in their personal finances and least confident in the labor market.
The three-day rolling average dropped off considerably toward the end of the reading, reaching its low point of 44.1 on Tuesday, May 17, the last day of the reading. After hitting its peak of 48.1 on Sunday, May 8, the moving average hovered between the 46.0 to 48.0 levels before falling a sharp 2.0 points to 45.2 on Saturday, May 14. Similar to the most recent reading on May 3, the rolling average’s steep decline at its conclusion puts the ESI on an uncertain path moving forward.
The next release of the ESI will be May 31.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.