Rise In Economic Sentiment Fueled By Confidence In Housing And Labor Markets
Economic sentiment among consumers increased slightly over the past two weeks, rising from 47.1 to 47.4, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The 0.3 point increase marks the second consecutive such rise in the index and means consumer confidence has been on the rise for a month now after having reached its lowest level (46.8) of 2016 during the April 5 reading. The increase to 47.4 puts the ESI just above its 2016 average of 47.3 through nine readings thus far.
Of the ESI’s five individual indicators, consumer confidence in the labor market, in the housing market, and in personal finances all increased, with rising confidence in the labor market leading the way. Confidence in the labor market experienced the most significant jump of 1.0 points to 36.9, while confidence in the housing market increased from 53.2 to 54.1. Confidence in personal finances also rose by nearly a full point to to 60.2. Meanwhile, consumer confidence in making a major purchase and in the broader U.S. economy each fell to 47.8 and 38.0, respectively. Given the increased confidence in personal finances and in the housing market, the top two indicators further distanced themselves from the others, with consumer confidence in personal finances maintaining its position as the top indicator.
The three-day rolling average had a large beta distribution during the reading, as the moving average fluctuated between a high of 49.4 and a low of 45.4. The rolling average reached its peak during the second week on Thursday, April 28, before rapidly descending to its low-point of 45.4 on Monday, May 2. While the overall ESI increased during the two week period, the rate of decline in the moving average during the second week sends the index into the next reading on a sour note.
The next release of the ESI will be May 17.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.