Consumer Confidence Continues Gradual Upward Trend In Advance Of The Holidays
Consumer confidence continued to rise gradually over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). In the final reading before the Thanksgiving holiday, the ESI continued its ascent, increasing 0.4 points, from 47.8 to 48.2. Despite this slight jump, consumer sentiment remains below the 12-month average for the past year, and is a full point lower than the reading from one year ago on November 18, 2014. With that said, the increase over the past two weeks brings consumer confidence to its highest level since the August 11 ESI reading, which was also 48.2.
Consumer confidence increased for three of the index’s five indicators over the past two weeks. Specifically, confidence in the labor market rose 2.1 points, from 37.6 to 39.7. Confidence in the broader U.S. economy increased by 1.5 points, up to 42.2, while consumer sentiment regarding the housing market rose to 53.9, a full point above the reading two weeks ago. Meanwhile, confidence in personal finances experienced the biggest drop this reading, declining from 58.9 to 56.9, but maintained its position as the indicator in which consumers are most confident. Consumer sentiment regarding major purchases ticked down slightly, from 48.7 to 48.2.
The ESI’s three day rolling average remained fairly stable over the past two weeks, reaching its apex of 49.0 on 11/14. Since that date, the moving average has been on the decline, but has registered at or above 48.3.
The next release of the ESI will be December 1.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.