Despite Bump In Consumer Confidence, ESI Remains Below 12-Month Average
An earlier version of this post contained incorrect historical information for the five individual questions. We apologize for the error.
After dropping in mid-October, consumer confidence ticked back up slightly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). A 0.4 point increase raises the ESI from 47.4 to 47.8, although consumer confidence has remained fairly stable since the August 11 reading; during that period, the index has registered in the 47-to-48 point range for each of the six readings, starting with the August 25 reading. Despite this consistency, the ESI remains below the 12-month average as we approach the holiday season. However, confidence in personal finances jumped 2.6 points to 58.9.
Over the last two weeks, confidence in the U.S. economy dropped 0.4 points, from 41.1 to 40.7 points, while confidence in the housing market fell from 54.2 to 52.9 points. Confidence in the labor market and in making a major purchase increased, albeit by less than 1 point, to 37.6 and 48.7 points, respectively. Consumer confidence in personal finances experienced the biggest gain, surging to 58.9 points and up 2.6 points from the October 20 reading.
The three-day moving average reached its peak of 49.1 on October 27, during the middle of the observation period. Since then, the average has been on the decline, falling below 48 points for all but two days.
The next release of the ESI will be November 17.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.