Despite Small Decline, Consumer Confidence Remains Stable
Consumer confidence dropped slightly over the past two weeks, according to the HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (ESI). The 0.6 point drop brings the ESI to 47.4, down from the previous reading of 48.0. While this is the first decrease in consumer confidence since the September 8 reading, the ESI has remained fairly consistent over the past two months, with each reading registering in the 47-48 range since August 11 of this year. Similar to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, the ESI has risen since this summer’s market scare, when it fell to 47 on the September 8 reading, the lowest reading for 2015 thus far. However, consumer confidence has not fully recovered to the levels seen earlier this summer.
Confidence in personal finances, the housing market, making a major purchase, and the labor market each declined slightly, accounting for the drop in the overall index. The national economy was the lone bright spot this reading, as consumer confidence in the US economy ticked up 0.7 points. In keeping with the trends over the past year, consumers remained most confident about their personal finances and least confident about the labor market.
The three-day rolling average declined to its lowest point on October 14, dropping down to 45.9. However, the rolling average has rebounded in the last six days, returning to levels greater than 47.5 for each day.
The next release of the ESI will be November 3.
About the Index
The HPS-CivicScience Economic Sentiment Index (“ESI”) is a “living” index that measures U.S. adults’ expectations for the economy going forward, as well as their feelings about current conditions for major purchases. The primary goal of the Index is to accurately measure movements in overall national economic sentiment, and to provide a more sophisticated alternative to existing economic sentiment indices. Unlike other prominent indices that release consumer sentiment estimates infrequently, the HPS-CivicScience Index is updated in real time as responses are collected continuously every hour, every day. Large-scale cross-tabulation of survey responses and consumer attributes enable more granular analyses than are currently possible through prevailing measures.
For a more detailed overview of the Index and the underlying methodology, please request a white paper.
About Hamilton Place Strategies (HPS)
Hamilton Place Strategies is a policy, advocacy, and communications consulting firm with a focus and expertise at the intersection of government, business, and media.
CivicScience, Inc. provides the leading intelligent polling and real-time consumer insights platform, the InsightStore™. Its proprietary platform powers the world’s opinions and quickly gets that data to the decision makers who care. Every day, CivicScience polls ask millions of people questions related to thousands of topics, while its powerful data science and big data technology analyzes current consumer opinions, discovers trends as they start, and accurately predicts future behaviors and market outcomes. CivicScience polls run on hundreds of premier websites, in addition to its own public polling site at www.civicscience.com. CivicScience’s InsightStore™ is used by leading enterprises in marketing research, advertising, media, financial services, and political polling. For more information, visit CivicScience by clicking here and follow them on Twitter – @CivicScience.